The weakness of sterling against the euro is also likely to have contributed to the deterioration in arrivals from the UK – the major source market. The tourism sector though is in for a far worse year in 2009. Figures for Q109 show that the number of tourists visiting Greece was down 7.2% year-on-year (y-o-y). Reportedly, convention and business tourism in Athens and Thessaloniki has been badly affected by the global economic downturn. Tourism is not completely depressed, however, with a number of Greek islands, including Rhodes and the Dodecanese Islands, recording strong growth in tourist arrivals in the first four months of 2009. More recent local data, from the Federation of Hellenic Tourist Enterprises, report that tourist arrivals declined around 10% y-o-y in H109.

Forecast Scenario Although the Greek tourism sector is set for a difficult year in 2009, this quarter, we have revised up slightly our expectations for foreign tourist arrivals in the short term, and now anticipate negative growth of 9% y-o-y. We also continue to maintain that there will be a slight recovery in tourist arrivals next year, as the economic downturn in the most important source markets – the eurozone and the UK – bottoms out. However, more significant recovery in arrivals is only likely to take place from 2011.

Athens International Airport The most recent traffic data from Athens International Airport (AIA) are for the first five months of 2009 and show a continuing poor trend. Total passenger traffic was down just under 6% y-o-y, with numbers falling about 10% in May, compared with the same month in 2008. The number of international passengers, meanwhile, declined over 9% y-o-y in the five-month period, and fell nearly 14% y-o-y in May. Compared with Q109, however, the decline in international passenger traffic does show slight improvement.

Aegean Airlines In May 2009, the global partnership of the Star Alliance association accepted the membership application of Aegean Airlines. The integration process is expected to take around twelve months. Latest figures show Aegean Airlines carried 1.2mn passengers in Q109, achieving 9% y-o-y growth, with international traffic up an impressive 20% y-o-y to about 430,000 passengers – contrary to general aviation trends. Expanding its international routes, the carrier will start a daily service to Istanbul in September 2009.

Olympic Airlines/Olympic Air Following the privatisation of the national carrier Olympic Airlines in March this year, the owners, Greece’s Marfin Investment Group (MIG), announced in July that a new airline, Olympic Air, would begin flight operations in October 2009.